Take the Ahr Valley flood in Germany and Belgium in July 2021 compared to flooding in the South African province of KwaZulu-Natal in April 2022 as an example. "So even for similar types of extreme weather, it can still be different for different regions." Does climate change have the same impact everywhere?Ĭlimate change impacts also differ from region to region, said Philip. "With heat waves climate change is really a game changer," said Friederike Otto. And climate change made deadly early heat waves in India and Pakistan this year 30 times more likely. Without global heating, recent record temperatures of 40 degrees Celsius (104 Fahrenheit) in the United Kingdom would have been virtually impossible, as would the North American heat wave of 2021, according to WWA analyses. Swings in temperature are not necessarily more extreme but as global average temperatures rise, heat waves have grown hotter and cold spells milder. The link between temperature extremes and global heating is much more direct, said Philip. But where and when that falls depends on a variety of factors, she added. "A warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture, which can result in heavier rainfall," said Philip. So while global heating alone cannot cause heavy rain, it can facilitate prime conditions and increase the amount of precipitation. Its influence depends on the weather phenomenon in question and is weighted differently for each event, said German climatologist Friederike Otto from Imperial College in London and a founder of the WWA research team.Ĭlimate change plays a big role for some events, said Otto, "but for most others like heavy rainfall or droughts, it is quite often a relatively small factor compared to others."
For instance, large-scale deforestation and paving over green areas that would usually absorb heavy rainfall with concrete and tarmac can worsen flooding.Ĭlimate change is a human factor too, of course, but is never the sole trigger of a weather catastrophe. They result from natural factors, as well as human-made ones. Weather catastrophes are never down to just one cause. Does global warming cause flooding and heat waves? "But climate change might, however, have an impact on the probability or extremity of the extreme weather events."ĭetermining climate change's contribution is exactly what Philip, who works with an international research team at the World Weather Attribution initiative (WWA), is trying to do by conducting real-time attribution analysis of global weather events as they occur. "Extreme weather has always existed and will always exist," said Sjoukje Philip, a climate researcher at the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI). Pakistani Climate Change Minister Sherry Rehmen: 'The images are heartbreaking'Įstablishing a direct causal link between rising global average temperature and a single storm, for instance, is difficult and an evolving science.
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